Diana Kibuuka
“The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and other experts warn that no new fossil fuel projects can be built if we are to reach Paris Agreement goals and limit the worst impacts of climate change. EACOP will be an ongoing disaster for the planet, contributing to the climate crisis that impacts a range of human rights, and therefore should not be built”.
AT the recent concluded COP28 in Dubai, Director Legal and Corporate affairs, Petroleum Authority of Uganda Ali Ssekatawa, found himself between a rock and hard place as he tried convincing environmental conservationists and other Anti- EACOP parties on why Uganda needs the 1,443kms East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), in its energy transition journey amidst the global climate change challenges.
In an “EACOP as a Guarantee of Just Transition in Uganda” discussion, during the COP28, Uganda got heavily criticized for failing to understand the climate change challenges associated the fossil fuels and it continues to push for the new East African Crude Oil Pipeline that will run from Kabaale, Hoima district in Uganda to the Chongoleani Peninsula near Tanga Port in Tanzania.
Defending the $4 Billion project, Sekatawa said, it’s high time Uganda stopped importing petroleum products and begins on the journey to producing their own, so that they cut costs on petroleum products importation which according to Bank of Uganda, are above 3.2 trillion Uganda shillings ($86.2M) annually.
On whether the EACOP project is a guarantee to Uganda’s energy transition, Sekatawa confidently replies that with the launch of Uganda’s Energy Transition Plan, EACOP that is expected to yield for Uganda $3b (approximately Shs11. 4 trillion) in revenues from exports of up to 60,000 barrels of oil per day, according to the Bank’s estimates, will support green energy projects like electricity extension, solar powering and clean cooking energy projects but all these are expected in 2065 when Uganda will atleast experience 85% energy access and green energy.
It’s unfair to Sekatawa, for already developed countries under the guise of protecting the environment to fight the EACOP project, explaining that the project is not harmful as portrayed because, puts into consideration three aspects; the people, the planet and environment, Sekatawa assures the public and mainly those concerned about the environment, that the technology used promotes low carbon development – a new development pattern that aims to reduce Carbon dioxide emissions while not affecting economic growth. The ultimate goal of low-carbon development is to achieve the sustainable development of environment, economy, and society.
Sekatawa added that Uganda and Tanzania who are the key parties in the EACOP project feel offended when they get attacked with what he calls lies peddled by environmental activists about the project’s implementation.
“……….. I request that you don’t advocate for the stopping of the project – you should advocate for sustainable development of the project but with correct facts – we feel very insulted as Ugandans and Tanzanians, when you parade lies, where we are not, about our countries and our project”, Semakula’s statement of dissatisfaction towards Warah Meryne a climate change activist from Green faith organization in Kenya during a heated up discussion on EACOP at COP28.
Uganda’s stand on phasing out fossil fuel lies in the 1st in 1st principle, which says that countries that went first into fossil fuel extraction should quit the business first and later those that have just started will quit at a later stage after acquiring some social-economic benefits.
A high percentage of Uganda’s energy consumption comes from renewable sources, and mainly from firewood and charcoal which accelerates climate change because it involves cutting of trees and burning charcoal that emits carbon. In June 2019, per capita electricity consumption in Uganda was only 75 kWh/a – Modern renewables in total accounted for only 22% in 2020. So, a rapid transition towards renewable energy, and bio energy in particular, is needed to avoid further deforestation, emissions, and health risks, and to seeing Uganda into a net zero emissions economy by 2065.
According to Uganda’s Energy Transition Plan, out of 25 million people, 55% have no access to electricity, Those with access are mostly concentrated in Kampala and the central region where the grid infrastructure is most developed.
Inside Uganda’s Energy Transition Plan
The Energy Transition Plan (ETP), that was launched at COP28 this year in Dubai, sets strategies for Uganda to achieve universal access to modern energy by 2030 and powering the country’s economic transformation up to 2050 in a sustainable and secure way. It envisages Uganda achieving net zero emissions in the energy sector by 2065 and installed solar capacity reaching 45GW by 2065.
The plan is based on the scenario of Uganda’s population almost doubling to 88 million in 2050, from 46 million in 2021, and the urbanization rate increasing from about 25% today to 45% by the middle of the century. (Source: ETP)
The objectives of the ETP are to;
• Provide universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking by 2030.
• Modernise and diversify Uganda’s energy mix and promote its efficient use across all sectors to support industrial growth, poverty reduction and socioeconomic transformation.
• Ensure secure and affordable energy supply.
• Mitigate energy emissions in line with Uganda’s conditional climate commitments, which imply a 20% reduction compared to baseline emissions in 2030.
• Position Uganda as an energy hub for the East African region
Uganda Future Energy Generation Mix
By 2050, the aim is for clean fuels including solar, geothermal, nuclear and hydro power to account for 75% of the country’s energy supply.
Electricity generation is projected to increase from 5TWh today to 200TWh by the middle of the century, driven by industrial activity, increased electricity access, population growth, rising living standards and the electrification of the economy.
Whereas 90% of the country’s electricity is currently produced by hydro power facilities, its future energy mix will be more diversified, with photovoltaic (PV) solar accounting for 40% by 2050.
Installed solar PV capacity will expand from about 0.06GW today to 7.5GW in 2030 and almost 45GW by the middle of the century.
The Uganda Rift System in the west of country offers significant opportunities for developing geothermal energy and the target is for 1.5GW of installed geothermal capacity by 2040 and 5GW in 2050, which will account for one sixth of Uganda’s electricity supply.
The ETP sees a small role for wind power in Uganda, largely in the northeast due to the limited resource profile and concerns over the future impact of climate change on water flows.
From 2030, grid-connected batteries will come online – bringing greater operational flexibility and enhancing grid resilience – scaling up to almost 9GW in 2050 on the back of global cost reductions. This will facilitate the integration of solar and wind capacity.
The Energy Transition Plan predicts installed nuclear capacity reaching 5.9GW by 2050, providing 20% of the country’s electricity. The nuclear power will improve energy security and grid stability, and is planning to develop two nuclear plants, with the first 1GW facility coming online in the mid-2030s.
Investment requirements.
The Energy Transition Plan calls for US$325 billion of investment in Uganda’s energy sector over the next three decades. It states that annual investment needs to reach around US$8 billion by the second half of this decade, with US$7.2 billion of this going to clean energy or access related investments.
Solar will account for 30% of the total investment in clean energy.
Total investment in nuclear energy is estimated at US$6 billion from 2030 to 2040, with a further US$18 billion in the following decade.
Between 2026 and 2030, the plan foresees total annual investments of US$1 billion for oil and gas supply, refining and processing at the Hoima oil refinery in Lake Albert basin that see a construction of the 60,000-barrel production a day.
Between 2026 and 2030, investment of US$2.8 billion is needed in power generation.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) Deputy Executive Director, Mary Burce Warlick on her analysis on Uganda’s Energy Transition Plan said, Uganda is well equipped to drive further progress towards its energy and climate goals. with the right packages of policies, this can reinforce the global energy transition while producing significant economic and social benefits for the Ugandan people.
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